Theoretical basing of the technical condition control points of systems and units of means of transport

Abstract

In this article for forecasting of a residual resource of elements of systems and units of means of transport for their actual technical condition is proposed probabilistic-physical approach. The essence of the approach is to use statistical information and an actual values resource defining diagnostic parameters. In the operation of means of transport two development options are considered: monotony when a parameter does not change through time, or the changes are minor and non-monotonic, when there are the increasing and decreasing of values of diagnostic parameters with preservation of tendencies of their development. The mathematical apparatus of determining the first interval control of technical condition and forecasting of runs until the next control using the ratio of the minimum intensity of operating costs, which takes into account the costs of restoration of the technical condition during unscheduled repairs and preventive costs during scheduled maintenance, is proposed. Based on the developed mathematical apparatus, a number of algorithms for its implementation are proposed. In predicting time to failure using the developed algorithms, we used the following distributions: inverse Gaussian, Weibull-Gnedenko, Birman-Saunders, truncated normal and generated for these methods of parameters estimation based on the procedure of isolation of decisions and parameters satisfying the property is almost an increasing function of the intensity of the operating costs. Features patterns between the parameters of the distribution laws, mathematical expectation of the run and its dispersion are shown. Determination of the parameters of the distribution laws allows to more accurately describe and identify the rational operating times for the first and subsequent intervals of control of technical condition of systems and and units of means of transport.