Calculation of probability of emergency status of tractor on statistical data of defectoscopic control

Abstract

It is established that in order to assess the probability of emergency situations during the operation of tractors, it is advisable to use statistical methods for recognizing the tasks of technical diagnostics. On this basis, a technique has been developed for calculating the conditional probability of a tractor's emergency condition, where the data are analyzed not about the linear dimensions of operational defects, but the available signs, cracks of varying degrees of danger of fracture of a part are found. This makes it possible to evaluate the tractor's malfunction in the probabilistic aspect, depending on the realizations of the complex of characteristics, that is, for possible options for the presence or absence of cracks in the limiting and permissible sizes.